Sunday, November 01, 2015

The Future is Somewhat Dystopian

I just finished reading a book that explained to me that my desire for a strong middle class is a futile wish.  This segment of society will diminish as technology replaces the more mundane jobs and tasks within those jobs, including writing scientific theories(!) and even teaching.  This is already happening with computers collecting and analyzing data for everything from how our blood reacts to drugs to how a product can sell to the why of the disappearance of some esoteric insect.  We just need a handful of people to understand the data that drives an answer.  All that will be needed is about 10% in each profession to be the bridge between the computer and man or the designer and tinkerer of technology.  But since these, about 10%to 15%,  will be very well paid, the upper class will grow.

The disappearance of jobs means competition will be fierce and the victory will go to the focused and very smart students who understand the technology, those students for whom numbers are a fascinating puzzle, those who like cyphers.  Robots can replace all the low end jobs and even things that are not supposed to be jobs such as sex.  The poor class will grow larger.

Then the author goes on to say that there will be no class revolution.  The poor will have lots of cheap food, cheap entertainment and cheap housing to numb them.  They will accept that this is their lot in life.  They will not be the beneficiaries of cheap health care, though.  Since it is paid for by others, it will be parceled out even more judiciously and sparingly.  I am not saying I agree with this, just reporting on what was written.

The book is titled "Average is Over" by Tyler Cowen, recommended to me by our financial adviser, who should be most worried about his job  with the growth of the use of computers to crunch numbers....

P.S.  This view neglects the importance of creative thought and creativity in all the art forms that we love.

21 comments:

  1. There have also been theories that we would run out of food as populations grew yet the supply has met the demand through technology, there have been fears of computers and machines taking over jobs and in fact new technology has always increased the need for employment, increased productivity and improved our standard of living...alas I fear this time the hand ringers may be correct, as this theory points out, today's technology is putting a premium on skills that many people will not possess.

    I hope the bleak prediction is as wrong as past bleak predictions proved to be, but I fear this time they are correct.

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  2. Life has changed so much in the last 15 years and in the last five, it seems like rapid fire. Pandora's box has been opened and there is no closing it. I am glad that I am old, but I fear for my children and grandchildren and the generations to follow. However, I am sure others before us had the same fears and mankind did survive.

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  3. Poor is a relative concept. I guess I am poor by some standards but not by world standards.

    Health care may only be a problem in the USA, which is a different sort of place.

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  4. It's sad to contemplate. That's not a future any of us want for the next generations.

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  5. things go in cycles but there has always been a merchant class so I expect there always will be. it will just be different.

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  6. We can turn it around but the lazy way is not to do that. I do know that about five years ago I began thinking how important it was that my grandchildren could get a higher education and we had to try to help. We began putting away money toward that end.

    From the beginning I had decided any profits from my books would go to their education. For a few years, that was a laugh but then they began selling better. Just about that time, I found out what a college education, in a state university, was going to cost. I was in sticker shock as college educations have way overrun regular inflation and in ten years. The irony on this was Washington state was trying to reverse this but it was the Republicans having to fight the Democrats to get a 20% reduction in tuition. We though have Bernie Sanders wanting free tuition for students with good grades but would Hillary work for that end? To me, there are those in the left and right who want the country run by a few elites, whether that's the rich or intellectual elites. I think they are satisfied to see the masses not even vote as they aren't smart enough. I'd like to think positive about our nation's future but it's hard to do right now.

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  7. We've been hearing this theory about how machines will take over the world for a long time. Personally, I doubt it. I keep reminding people that computers are a tool. They work for us; we don't work for them. And I'm betting on human creativity, ingenuity and resourcefulness to work around the tyranny of technology. Alas, I may be in the minority, but I hope Cowen is wrong.

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  8. Thanks. I won't be reading that book. I prefer my rose colored glasses.

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  9. I have to admit I am somewhat fearful for my grandkids and their contemporaries. They are just beginning to go to college and they are quite focused, more than I was at their age. I help them when I can. Our country needs to be education minded. The culture that neglects the health and education of all its children is doomed.

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  10. My violet colored glasses see a bit further. Key is creativity....triggered by disease, by genetics, by endless other factors. Music, sculpture, art, design... So many kids are going to college now just to get a job...my eldest did that. My friends who teach complain of that. My youngest focused on design...which is now useless. Masters degrees and above will get you a job...and I believe teachers will still be needed. No matter what, education is the key, is still the path out of the middle class into the future no matter what he thinks.

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  11. Depression, but your post script cheered me up a little.

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  12. What do you think, Tabor?

    The robots being created now are close to being able to "think" for themselves. Every nation has its apex and its downfall. I read Peak Everything and that worries me equally. This country has so many problems and fewer easy answers. We will hang on a little longer but I'm afraid for my children and grandchildren. It's going to be a nasty downward spiral.

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  13. See? That is why I don't read books like that. I don't know if I would ever be able to sleep again. Also, I think people have been predicting this for the last 40 years. I remember hearing how "robots" are going to replace humans and take over all the jobs.
    My brother is a huge conspiracy theorist. It makes me nervous talking to him. Many of the theories sound plausible. However, I can't do anything about it. I try not to worry too much about things I can't change. I am a worrier by nature so it is difficult. I will stick to my happy fictional books. ;)

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  14. Tabor, I sent information for cup
    to the email I have for you.
    You can see
    how I do not know how to do a lot :)

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  15. Tabor, so sorry
    know of no other way to communicate with you :)
    email
    did not go through.
    My email on my blog
    if you email me
    I will return it
    with information on cup :)

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  16. Yikes! Depressing book depressing topic depressing summary

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  17. Yikes! Depressing book depressing topic depressing summary

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  18. Reply: Oh, I use spices and all sorts of things on my veggies. I cook them all sorts of ways too. The bottom line is that I am allergic to some of them. Some cause hives such as oranges, lemons, et al, and other's just violently upset my innards. I eat a rotational diet that occasionally includes some of the things that cause hives. When life get's really bad, I revert to rice. LOL

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  19. It sounds roughly to me like the Malthusian specter. That idea didn't fly, as I recall, but it scared a lot of people.

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  20. The future belongs to Asia. That's my conclusion after spending some time in Australia and New Zealand.

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  21. Sounds fascinating in a realist sort of way.

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Take your time...take a deep breath...then hit me with your best shot.